CMC Markets专栏:乳制品价格再降 2016连跌

昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格较前次再跌1.4%, 为新年以来的第二次下跌, 乳制品平均价格跌至2405美元/公吨, 较两周前的拍卖价格2458美元再次下跌58美元. 新西兰AgriHQ对于2015-2016年奶制品收购价格的预期下降17纽分至4.43纽币/千克。 新西兰恒天然乳业的现行奶制品收购价格为4.46纽分/千克。 奶制品价格的再次滑落对恒天然乳业奶品价格造成压力。

纽币昨日并没有乳制品价格下跌而下滑，截至新西兰时间上午9点27分， 纽币对美元昨日上涨39点至0.6492。

乳制品价格的下跌的主要原因在于美元的持续走强与主要进口国家如中国及其他亚洲国家货币的贬值所致， 乳制品主要进口国货币贬值对于进口商品价格施加压力， 使得需求相对于生产薄弱。同时，由于欧洲地区乳品产量的增加，抢占部分市场给价格再度施压。

全球乳制品拍卖价格指数走势

数据来源：Globaldairytrade

数据来源：Globaldairytrade

AgriHQ乳品农场收购价格走势

本次拍卖价格中，凝乳酶干酪素的价格呈现最大跌幅达-7.8%至4405美元/公吨， 黄油价格下跌5.9%至3162美元/公吨，切达乳酪敬爱个下跌3.4%至2867美元/公吨；全脂奶粉价格小幅下跌0.5%至2188美元/公吨，同时脱脂奶粉价格下跌3.2%至1835美元/公吨。据新西兰商品交易所（NZX）乳制品期货价格之前的预期， 全脂奶粉与脱脂奶粉价格都有所下跌。

在本次拍卖中价格有所上涨的是无水乳脂肪与酪乳粉，分别上涨2.4%与2.7%。本次拍卖共有616名合格竞拍者， 115名胜出，拍卖共11次。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。