CBN Friday Special丨China's 2023 growth highlighted by MNCs, foreign institutions

Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Friday Special. I’m Stephanie Li.

2023 is the first year after the 20th CPC National Congress, which is widely seen as the opening year for China to execute the new blueprint, and also a key year of hard work, laying the foundation for a decade of economic and social development in the country.

With the annual two sessions about to kick off in the weekend, which are key events in China’s political calendar, the world is looking keenly for how the world’s second largest economy will form its economic policies to shape the nation in the new era as it merges from the COVID-19 pandemic.

While markets are worried about a slowdown in Western economies, China's growth is poised to pick up this year. Last month, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 to 5.5 percent from 5.2 percent previously.

The International Monetary Fund projected that China’s GDP growth target for 2023 will be set at 5.2 percent, as the country reopens to the world.

Moody's Investors Service recently lifted its forecast for China's real GDP growth to 5 percent for both 2023 and 2024, up from its previous projection of 4 percent for both years. Deutsche Bank raised its forecast of China's growth to 6 percent this year, up from 4.5 percent in its previous estimate.

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, predicted that China's economy will expand 5.7 percent year-on-year in 2023, contributing to around 40 percent of global economic growth.

Being bullish about the long-term growth prospects of the Chinese economy and the potential of its huge consumer market, a number of multinational companies, have recently said that they plan to continue to expand their business in China this year.

Last year, McDonald's opened 700 new outlets in China. The leading global food service retailer plans to open 900 more this year, more than doubling the number it plans to add in the U.S.

Meanwhile, coffee giant Starbucks said its store count on the Chinese mainland is expected to grow to 9,000 by 2025, providing 35,000 new jobs. "I remain more confident than ever that we are still only in the early chapters of our growth story in China," Starbucks's interim Chief Executive Howard Schultz was quoted as saying.

Luxury brand Coach's parent company, Tapestry, also deepens its push into China. The company set aside $325 million for capital and software spending, and roughly half will go to new stores and renovations in China.

Packaged-meat company Tyson Foods previously said six new plants will come online this year, half of which will be in China. Jim Snee, CEO of Hormel Foods, said the company plans a significant expansion in China to come online in 2024.

British-Dutch consumer goods company Unilever is marking the 100th anniversary of its entry into the Chinese market this year. The company plans to continue to increase investments in China.

Top executives from an increasing number of big-name multinational companies are planning to visit China in March, highlighting the significance of China in multinational companies' business plans, particularly amid subdued global economic prospects.

Multinationals that have confirmed such visit plans include US-based industrial conglomerate Danaher Corp, UK pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and France's L'Oreal Group.

Volkswagen AG's chief executive visited China from late January to early February, while Apple CEO Tim Cook and Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla are expected to visit soon. Ola Källenius, Mercedes-Benz Group AG's chairman, is also planning a visit to China.

Some executives are looking to meet managers, local business partners and visit local site operations, while others are expected to attend business conferences in China that are planned for the coming months after the optimized COVID-19 response measures.

Top executives weighing a visit to the China Development Forum in Beijing include Apple CEO Tim Cook, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, and top Australian miner Rio Tinto's CEO.

Meanwhile, the Boao Forum will draw top business leaders from other countries, including Andrew Forrest, executive chairman of Fortescue Metals Group, the world's No.4 iron ore producer.

Meanwhile, foreign commerce chambers in China have strong expectations for this year's annual two sessions, expressing confidence in China's economic growth in 2023 and eyeing greater opportunities from Chinese modernization.

Michael Hart, AmCham China president, said on Wednesday that the chamber is looking at China's policy direction as leading positions at state institutions are confirmed, while it is also interested in a number of reform policies guiding the financial, internet and industrial sectors.

Probably half a dozen US companies have said their CEOs are going to visit this spring, according to Hart.

Most foreign companies consider China an important investment destination, and the nation continues to post higher returns on investments compared with the global levels, according to a survey by AmCham in South China.

More than 90 percent of the respondents selected China as one of their most important investment destinations. Around 75 percent plan to reinvest in China in 2023, including 68 percent of US companies that are determined to dig deeper into the Chinese market.

The survey also shows that China can provide a high return on investment, or ROI, with 76 percent of the companies reporting a positive overall ROI in China and 49 percent considering their overall ROI in China to be higher than their global benefits.

The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade said last week that 98.2 percent of the 390 foreign companies and business chambers in China that were recently surveyed have expressed confidence in China's economic development in 2023.

During the two sessions, China's economic policy priorities for the year and beyond are usually widely discussed, which offers foreign businesses a window into potential opportunities. This year, it is widely expected that the government is likely to launch a pro-growth economic agenda, which could translate into preferential industry policies and increasing market access. Thus, China’s efforts to further open up its market are also in focus.

Thanks to the country's ongoing fast economic recovery, constantly improving business environment, complete industrial and supply chains and other favorable factors, multinationals' confidence in the Chinese market is steadfast.

During a meeting with Michel Doukeris, chief executive of the world's largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev on February 24, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed China's resolve on opening-up at a higher level. Doukeris said the group pays close attention to the Chinese market, and his visit to China will shore up the group's confidence to ramp up investment in China.

China is a market foreign enterprises must go to, and the country will further strengthen efforts to retain and attract more high-quality foreign investment, the minister said on Thursday.

Attracting and utilizing more foreign investment will be "a key task" this year, Wang said, adding that the country will make greater efforts to promote investment, improve services, expand opening-up and optimize the business environment, in order to retain high-quality foreign investment and attract more foreign investors.

Wang vowed that the ministry and other central government departments will conduct research and roll out policy measures to ensure foreign enterprises have equal access to those opportunities.

The ministry will also initiate a "Year of Investing in China" program, which will include a series of foreign investment promotional events and activities at home and abroad.

According to the commerce ministry, the actual use of foreign capital on the Chinese mainland hit 127.69 billion yuan ($18.65 billion) in January, up 14.5 percent year-on-year. Last year, foreign direct investment in China remained stable and rose by 8 percent to $189.13 billion.

China's economy is showing signs of a stronger rebound in recent months, with manufacturing sector posting its biggest improvement in more than a decade, service sector climbing and the housing market stabilizing, providing a positive note for the two sessions.

The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 last month, official data showed Wednesday, the highest reading since April 2012. A non-manufacturing gauge measuring activity in both the service and construction sectors improved to 56.3. Both indexes beat economists' expectations.

Other data has signaled a pickup in domestic demand. China's home sales rose in February from a year earlier, the first such increase since June 2021 as policymakers expanded support for the sector.

Top leaders in China have pledged to prioritize growth this year, placing an emphasis on the role that domestic demand will play in driving the recovery.

China's finance minister Liu Kun said Wednesday that the economy is expected to recover this year, leading to increased fiscal revenue. Central bank governor Yi Gang said on Friday that China will work to consolidate the benefits of lower interest rates for the economy and will maintain reasonably ample market liquidity to support economic recovery.

As another sign of confidence in China, foreign financial institutions are racing to expand their operations. The amount of "northbound capital" - foreign money flowing into China's A-share market through Hong Kong - exceeded 150 billion yuan in the first two months of 2023, with that of January hitting a historic high of over 140 billion yuan.

立春已过，万物蓬勃生长的春天正在走来。

在中国这片全球投资兴业的热土上，一个个播种希望的故事纷纷开启新篇章。在上海，20家“新升级”的跨国公司地区总部和10家研发中心日前正式亮相，外企“老铁”加力投资和研发；在海南，自贸港持续释放引资“磁力”，法国路威酩轩集团等一大批国际知名企业投资设企；在沈阳、南京、杭州、武汉、广州、成都等地，开展服务业扩大开放综合试点的好消息，预示着服务业吸引外资指数将大幅上升……

事实和数据证明，外资持续看好充满活力的中国。

在全球跨国投资活动整体低迷的大背景下，中国在吸引外资上的表现引人瞩目。继2022年全年利用外资规模创历史新高后，商务部最新发布数据显示，2023年开年首月中国实际使用外资金额1276.9亿元，同比增长14.5%，彰显中国依然是外商投资兴业的热土。

客观上看，当前全球经济增长的不确定性因素还在增加，近期多个国际组织发布的全球经济展望报告，均对全球经济复苏表达出“非乐观”的态度。而国际货币基金组织（IMF）1月31日更新《世界经济展望报告》，则预测2023年中国经济增长率为5.2%，较前次预测大幅上调0.8个百分点。近期，联合国也预测，2023年中国经济增长将加速。

多家国际机构近期也纷纷表示看好2023年中国经济前景。活力十足的经济增长，给了外资看多中国的信心。时隔9个月，贝莱德智库再次对中国股票给出“超配”评级。“我们预计2023年中国GDP增速会略超6%，高于市场5.2%的平均预测。”贝莱德智库首席中国经济学家宋宇表示。

无独有偶，华尔街大行高盛、摩根士丹利亦纷纷上调中国2023年经济增长预测。专家和投行普遍上调中国今年的经济增长预测，多数人认为中国经济增速将在5%-5.9%区间的中高端。

摩根士丹利从5%上调至5.7%，高盛集团从4.5%上调至5.5%，野村证券从4.8%上调至5.3%。惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)是最近一家上调预测的机构。该公司预计中国2023年国内生产总值(GDP)将增长5.0%，远高于其先前估计的4.1%，理由是消费和制造业复苏快于预期。近日，德意志银行中国债务资本市场主管方中睿（Samuel Fischer）表示，德银看好今年中国市场的整体表现，将其对中国经济增速的预测从4.5%调高至6%。

截至3月1日，A股市场北向资金今年已经累计净买入1575.58亿元，已超过去年全年。1月，北向资金净流入金额1412亿元，达到历史单月净流入最高值。外资人士表示，对中国经济“成长故事”翘首以待，长钱有望更多流入中国市场。

对中国经济看高一线，源于中国经济的“成长故事”，以及中国市场的相对吸引力。政策层面促增长的发力方向是增强国际投资者信心的重要支撑。而更为重要的是国内经济数据的验证。近期经济活动明显恢复。开年以来，采购经理指数（PMI）、线下出行、房地产销售等数据出现好转，也为国际投资者审视中国投资机会提供了基本面支持。

而随着中国疫情防控政策优化，以及各项经济政策的落地实施，春节过后，外商和外资开始在中国重新聚集，跨国企业的高管们正陆续“重返”中国。

1月底，大众汽车首席执行官奥博穆(Oliver Blume)对中国进行了5天的访问。大众公司表示，此次访问“是向我们在该地区的合作伙伴发出的一个非常强烈的信号，明确了中国市场对我们的重要性”。

与此同时，苹果公司首席执行官库克和辉瑞公司首席执行官艾伯乐(Albert Bourla)预计将在下个月访问中国。梅赛德斯-奔驰集团董事长康林松（Ola Källenius）也计划近期访问中国。对于许多跨国公司高管而言，这将是自新冠疫情暴发以来首次访问中国。

跨国公司高管纷纷访华表明，尽管全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧，西方企业仍在寻找中国重新开放带来的商机。对全球许多巨头企业来说，中国始终是一个顶级制造中心和消费市场。

近期中国正紧锣密鼓准备一系列论坛和展会，包括中国发展高层论坛、博鳌亚洲论坛、上海国际汽车工业展览会等，都将吸引跨国公司高层参会。

2022年，一批外资项目在中国落地发芽，正在茁壮成长。尽管面对新冠疫情、全球经济增长趋缓以及投资保护主义升温等不利因素冲击，我国吸收外资实现稳定增长，首次突破1.2万亿元，按可比口径同比增长6.3%。规模再创历史新高，依然保持世界前列。今年以来，持续保持增长态势，1月份实际使用外资1277亿元人民币，同比增长14.5%，以美元计是190亿美元，同比增长10%。

“这再次证明中国依然是外商投资兴业的热土。”商务部副部长郭婷婷表示，2022年中国市场吸收外资量质齐升。引资结构持续优化、大项目带动作用增强。德国、韩国、英国等主要外资来源地投资分别增长达52.9%、64.2%和40.7%。

2月27日，华南美国商会发布《2023年中国营商环境白皮书》及《2023年华南地区经济情况特别报告》。两份报告显示，过半受访美资企业持续看好中国市场，2022年实现在华盈利的受访美资企业高达九成；75%的受访企业计划今年在华再投资，并预留了183亿美元现金用于未来3-5年再投资，其中68%的美资企业将继续深耕中国市场。

2022年，过半受访企业超过30%的全球收入来自中国，相较2021年增加了4%。45%的受访企业2022年在华营收实现增长，其中美资企业占比43%，制造业企业占比49%。76%的受访企业表示在华总体投资回报率为正值；49%的受访企业认为相比全球总体投资回报率，其在华总体投资回报率更高。“2023年，中国将会成为全球经济增长最重要的’火车头’。”华南美国商会会长哈利·赛亚丁认为。

一笔笔真金白银的外国投资，追求的是良好稳定的利润收益；一家家深耕中国市场的跨国企业，看中的是中国未来的增长前景和不断优化的营商环境。中国贸促会发布的调研结果显示，99.4%的受访外资企业对2023年中国经济发展前景更有信心，98.7%的受访外资企业表示将维持和扩大在华投资。

中国市场对外资的“磁吸力”持续增强。据商务部统计数据分析，超过九成在华外资企业主要面向中国市场，中国拥有14亿多人口，是世界第二大消费市场，消费新业态、新模式不断涌现，市场潜力持续释放，市场规模将进一步扩大，外商投资中国的动力也更足。

政策叠加效应持续显现。去年以来，商务部会同有关方面发布了新版《鼓励外商投资产业目录》，出台了促进制造业引资、鼓励外资研发中心发展等一系列专项政策。“今年，我们将全力推动这些政策落地开花，并将根据中央部署，再推出一批政策措施。存量政策和增量政策叠加发力，将给外资企业带来更多的获得感。”孟华婷指出。

3月2日，商务部部长王文涛表示，很多外企高管还是看好中国的经济发展前景，愿意继续在中国加大投资，深耕中国市场。“近期，我和我的同事与不少外企高管见面进行交流，有的企业说’中国这个市场不是可选项，而是必选项’，我们听了以后感到赞赏和欢迎。”王文涛说。

王文涛表示，在投资促进方面，商务部将主要办好“投资中国年”系列活动。这是商务部首次举办“投资中国年”系列活动。商务部将统筹各方资源，和地方一起推动招商引资的常态化、系列化和多元化。这些活动主要两个方面：“请进来”、“走出去”。

在推动更高水平开放方面，据介绍，商务部将研究推动合理缩减外资准入负面清单，进一步取消或放宽外资准入限制。此外，王文涛强调，在服务和开放的基础上，要优化外商投资环境。商务部将深入实施外商投资法及其实施条例，高标准落实好外资企业国民待遇。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委: 于晓娜

策划、编辑：李艳霞

播音：李莹亮

撰稿：李莹亮

音频制作：李莹亮

设计：郑文静、廖苑妮

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